Oil price and the automobile industry: Dynamic connectedness and portfolio implications with downside risk

The paper examines the interactions of downside risks between crude oil and the automobile sector through the employment of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) and Diebold and Yılmaz (2014) framework in a static and time-varying perspective. The network connectedness is found to intensify during the periods of the Global Financial Crisis (2007-09) and the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-21). Crude oil remains a net receiver of downside risks along with the automobile firms such as FAW and SAIC while Daimler, BMW, and Renault are the prominent transmitters of downside risk in the network. Further, we find that the net pairwise spillover of downside risk of oil on automobile stocks is time-variant. The risk diversification strategies using optimal portfolios that minimise VaR95, CVaR95, and maximise quadratic utility gains are constructed with oil futures contracts and evaluated for their hedging efficiency and net utility gains. The overall hedging efficiency and net utility gains are highest during the Global Financial crisis period, followed by COVID-19, the post-crisis, and the pre-crisis periods. The findings hold significance for investors, fund managers, and policymakers.

Frequency spillovers between green bonds, global factors and stock market before and during COVID-19 crisis.

This paper examines frequency dynamic spillovers in return and volatility and the hedging ability of Green Bonds, gold, silver, oil, the US dollar index, and volatility index against downside US stock prices before and during the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak and for the short and long run. To do so, we use the Diebold and Yilmaz (2014), the TVP-VAR model, and the frequency spillover index by Baruník and Krehlík (2018). We show that the short-term volatility spillovers dominate their long-term counterparts. Green Bond is net transmitters of spillovers in the system at the short term and net receivers at the long term. S&P500 and silver (USDX and oil) are net transmitters (receivers) of short- and long-term spillovers. Gold and VIX are net receivers of short-term spillovers and net transmitters of long-term spillovers. COVID-19 crisis has more effects on the short-term spillover, which reaches its highest level early 2020. COVID-19 and time horizons lead the direction and the magnitude of spillovers. The Quantile-on-Quantile regression analysis shows significant nonlinear relationships between markets under study. More interestingly, we show that green bonds and gold are safe haven assets for US equity investors during COVID-19. On the other hand, a mixed portfolio offers higher diversification benefits. Finally, hedging effectiveness is dependent on COVID-19 and time horizon.

Extreme return spillovers and connectedness between crude oil and precious metals futures markets: Implications for portfolio management

This paper examines quantile return spillovers and the connectedness between crude oil futures and key precious metals (PMs) using the approach developed by Ando et al. (2022). Our findings show that using the cross-quantilogram directional spillover method results in significant spillovers from oil to PMs under an extreme downside oil market scenario. Oil impacts both palladium and platinum under an extreme upside oil market status. Under normal oil market conditions, we show insignificant spillovers from oil to PMs. We find an insignificant dependence of PMs on oil during bearish markets, indicating that PMs serve as a safe haven asset. However, we find that oil and palladium are net receivers of spillovers across quantiles, except for palladium at intermediate quantiles, and other PMs are net contributors of spillovers across all quantiles. The spillovers are higher at extreme quantiles and increase during extreme events. Furthermore, we find no connection between platinum and gold under normal market conditions and a weak connection between platinum and both silver and palladium during bearish market scenarios. Precious metals are good diversifying assets for oil portfolios. The hedging strategy using PMs is less expensive during the COVID-19 pandemic than before it, with the exception of platinum. Finally, PMs offer higher hedging effectiveness before the pandemic crisis, whereas palladium provides the highest hedging effectiveness before and during the pandemic crisis.

Extreme quantile connectedness and spillovers between oil and Vietnamese stock markets: a sectoral analysis

Purpose This study examines the extreme quantile connectedness and spillovers between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures and ten Vietnamese stock market sectors. Knowledge of such links is important to both investors and policymakers in understanding the transmission of shocks across markets. Design/methodology/approach The authors employ the extreme quantile connectedness methodology of Ando et al. (2022). Findings Initial results show that the size of spillovers is higher during bearish markets than bullish markets and under major financial, political, energy and pandemic events. The oil market is a net receiver of spillovers during downward markets and net contributors during upward markets. The banking sector is a net contributor of spillovers, whereas consumer discretionary and consumer staples are net receivers for different quantiles. The role of the remaining sectors as net receivers/contributors is sensitive to the quantiles. Oil has a large spillover effect on the electricity sector for all quantiles. Comparing all crises, oil offers the best hedging effectiveness to the Vietnamese sector during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) crisis. Moreover, oil was a cheap hedge asset during oil crises. Finally, oil provides the highest hedging effectiveness for healthcare during the global financial crisis (GFC) and consumer staples during the European debt crisis (EDC), oil crisis and COVID-19. Originality/value Acknowledging the presence of heterogeneity in the relation between oil and economic sectors under different market conditions, this study is the first to examine the extreme quantile connectedness between oil and Vietnamese sectors.

Quantile dependencies and connectedness between stock and precious metals markets

The paper examines the frequency-based interlinkages between stock indices and precious metals at extreme and median quantiles. It employs the quantile cross-spectral approach (Baruník and Kley, 2019) and the novel frequency quantile connectedness analysis (Chatziantoniou et al., 2021) to a sample of stocks and precious metals returns. The results show that the interdependence between equity indices and precious metals markets is contingent on the state of the market (bear, bull, or normal) and the horizon of frequency domains. Of all precious metals, the diversification benefits from gold, followed by silver, are consistently the highest for SP500 and STOXX50 and the least with palladium in most cases. The same holds when we investigate the diversification potential of precious metals for industrial sectors in the US and UK. A quantile frequency connectedness approach reveals that the diversification potential of precious metals diminishes in the long frequency horizon as coherence with stock indices becomes highly positive. The connectedness between stock indices and precious metals is high during market extremities but dampens as the market attains stability. At the same time, connectedness increases during periods of financial turmoil across all frequencies. We also document a change in the diversification role of precious metals during COVID-19.

Frequency Connectedness and Spillovers among Oil and Islamic Sector Stock Markets: Portfolio Hedging Implications

Using the asymmetric Baba-Engle-Kraft-Kroner (BEKK)-GARCH model and the frequency spillover methodology by Baruník and Křehlík (2018), this paper examines spillovers and portfolio management between crude oil and US Islamic sector stocks. The results show significant time-varying spillovers between oil and Islamic sectors. The short-term spillovers are stronger than their long-term counterparts. The spillovers intensify during extreme events (global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic). The aggregate index, consumer services, raw materials, and manufacturing are net contributors of spillovers in the short term, whereas the remaining sectors are net recipients. In the long-term horizon, we find that consumer goods and finance become net transmitters of spillovers. The raw materials sector becomes a net recipient of spillovers in the long term. Finally, hedging effectiveness is lower in the long term than in the short term during the oil crisis in 2015-2016 and the US presidential election in 2017, US-China trade tension, and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Pricing efficiency and asymmetric multifractality of major asset classes before and during COVID-19 crisis

We examine the impact of COVID-19 pandemic crisis on the pricing efficiency and asymmetric multifractality of major asset classes (S&P500, US Treasury bond, US dollar index, Bitcoin, Brent oil, and gold) within a dynamic framework. Applying permutation entropy on intraday data that covers between April 30, 2019 and May 13, 2020, we show that efficiency of all sample asset classes is deteriorated with the outbreak, and in most cases this deterioration is significant. Results are found to be robust under different analysis schemes. Brent oil is the highest efficient market before and during crisis. The degree of efficiency is heterogeneous among all markets. The analysis by an asymmetric multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (A-MF-DFA) approach shows evidence of asymmetric multifractality in all markets which rise with the scales. The inefficiency is higher during downward trends before the pandemic crisis as well as during COVID-19 except for gold and Bitcoin. Moreover, the pandemic intensifies the inefficiency of all markets except Bitcoin. Findings reveal increased opportunities for price predictions and abnormal returns gains during the COVID-19 outbreak.

Spillovers and connectedness between green bond and stock markets in bearish and bullish market scenarios

This study examines the quantile connectedness between eight green bonds and the S&P 500 index using the methodology of Ando et al. (2022). We show that green bonds and the S&P 500 index exhibit stronger connectedness during crises (GFC, COVID-19, etc.). Furthermore, green bonds are relatively less volatile during extraordinary events. The distribution tails dictate connectedness (short-term) in the wake of extreme events. The quantile spillover in the green financial markets largely originates from their energy and resource (water conservation) counterparts. These observations underscore the prevalence of upside, downside, and tail risks from green stock markets, particularly following crisis events.

Nexus between oil shocks and agriculture commodities: Evidence from time and frequency domain

Oil shocks demonstrate an effective economic event in the face of several unprecedented financial challenges. The current study endeavors to investigate the nexus between oil shocks and agriculture commodities with portfolio implications. Building on the novel techniques of time- and frequency spillovers and portfolio analysis, we unlocked the potential connectedness networks as well as diversification and trading strategies for investors and portfolio managers. Our findings document strong intra and weaker inter-connectedness between oil shocks and agriculture commodities with greater time-varying spillovers in the short- and long-run. We framed valuable intuitions for policymakers, macro-prudential authorities, investors, and portfolio managers.

Quantile connectedness and spillovers analysis between oil and international REIT markets

We examine the quantile return spillovers between oil and international REIT markets (Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Singapore, UK, and US). Using a quantile connectedness approach, we show that the extreme oil–REIT nexus is heterogeneous and asymmetric. The return spillover is stronger at lower quantiles. Furthermore, the oil market acts as a net transmitter of return spillovers to the REIT markets during times of downside return and a net receiver of spillovers during upside returns. The hedging strategy is expensive during COVID-19, with oil offering the highest hedging effectiveness for Hong Kong. Gel classification : G14, F36, C40

COVID-19 pandemic's impact on intraday volatility spillover between oil, gold, and stock markets.

This study examines the volatility spillovers between the US stock market (S&P500 index) and both oil and gold before and during the global health crisis (GHC). We apply the FIAPARCH-DCC model to the 15-minute intraday data. The results showed negative (positive) conditional correlations between the S&P500 and gold (oil). The time-varying conditional correlations between markets were higher during COVID-19 spread. Moreover, gold offers more diversification gains than oil does during the pandemic. Hedging is more expensive during a pandemic than before. Oil provides higher hedging effectiveness (HE) than gold for all sub-periods. HE was lower during the COVID-19 outbreak for both oil and gold. These findings have important implications for both equity investors and policymakers.

Asymmetric spillovers and connectedness between crude oil and currency markets using high-frequency data

This paper examines the asymmetric spillovers and connectedness between the spot prices of West Texas Intermediate crude oil and six popular currencies—the Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Australian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Canadian Dollar. We analyze the asymmetric realized volatility spillovers spot prices as well as the higher moments such as their realized skewness and kurtosis. The estimated results indicate that these markets are strongly interconnected and that the currencies of larger economies as well as resource exporters are mainly net transmitters of volatility. However, this attribute is time-varying, especially during global economic events/shocks. The asymmetric volatility analysis finds that bad volatilities trump good ones on average. This attribute of the sample markets is also time-varying. The evaluation of directional networks in semi-variances reveals the dominance of bad volatilities over good ones and that bad volatilities from the currencies of larger and resource-based economies and the crude oil market are imparted for the most part. Moreover, the bad volatility of the British Pound, especially in the wake of Brexit, is a key contributor of its good volatility. However, in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, currencies of resource-based economies as well as the crude oil appear to impart small magnitudes of good volatilities. These findings have important implications for policymakers and highlight the need for responses tailored to different periods and markets.

Regime specific spillovers across US sectors and the role of oil price volatility

There is a growing literature studying return spillovers between similar assets and assets of different classes during crisis periods. However, less is known about return spillovers across stock sectors under high and low volatility regimes and whether they are affected by oil price volatility. Using daily data from May 10th, 2007 to February 28th, 2020, we first study the return spillovers between US stock sectors under low and high volatility regimes by implementing a Markov regime-switching vector autoregression with exogenous variables model, while considering the Fama-French factors as conditioning variables. Return spillovers under low and high volatility regimes show that the energy sector is the largest transmitter and receiver of spillovers to/from other US equity sectors. Rolling window analysis shows that spillovers intensified since the outbreak of the COVID19 pandemic. Second, we apply linear and non-linear Granger causality tests from oil price volatility to the spillover indices. The results show evidence that oil volatility has a causal impact on the spillover dynamics of US stock sectors and that the impact is particularly strong in the high volatility regime. Although the energy sector is one of the smallest sectors of the US stock market, it plays a large role in the network connectedness of stock sectors. The results are of interest to individual and institutional investors who consider US equity investments and to policymakers.

Dynamic and frequency spillovers between green bonds, oil and G7 stock markets: Implications for risk management

This paper examines the dynamic and frequency spillovers between global Green Bonds (GBs), WTI oil and G7 stock markets using the time-frequency spillover index by Baruník and Křehlík (2018) and wavelet coherency approach. The results show that the spilllovers is dynamic and crisis-sensitive. Furthermore, adding GBs and oil futures to stock portfolio reduces the spillover size during turmoil periods. The short-term spillovers (up to five trading days) represent the largest proportion of the total spillovers. A significant jump in spillovers is observed in the early of COVID-19 outbreak (March-April 2020). Interestingly, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and UK are the net transmitters of spillovers, whereas Japan and GBs are the net recipients of the spillovers, irrespective of time horizons. Oil and US stock market shift from net contributors in short term to net receipts in medium and long terms. Wavelet coherence analysis reveals significant co-movements between G7 stock markets and both oil and GBs. The co-movements are more pronounced in both medium and long terms and during COVID-19 spread where both oil and GBs lead stock markets. GBs provide higher diversification benefits to G7 investors than oil in the short-term. The hedging is expensive at the long term for GBs and intermediate term for WTI oil. Finally, the hedge effectiveness of crude oil is higher than GBs, irrespective of time horizons.

Precious metals, oil, and ASEAN stock markets: From global financial crisis to global health crisis

This paper examines the volatility spillover effects between precious metals futures (gold, palladium, platinum, and silver), Brent oil futures, and ASEAN stock markets (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam) at multiple time horizons and during bear and bull market periods. The results show that precious metals, crude oil, and the Vietnamese stock market are net receivers of spillovers irrespective of time horizons and during bearish market conditions. In contrast, during the bullish market conditions, Brent oil futures and Vietnamese stock markets become net contributors to short-term spillovers. Furthermore, the stock markets of Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines are the largest contributors to spillovers under bear and bull market conditions and regardless of the time investment horizons. Moreover, adding precious metals or oil futures to the ASEAN equity portfolio provides better hedging effectiveness during different considered crises. The role of Brent oil and precious metals futures serves as diversifier, hedge, and safe haven assets is discussed under major events.

Modeling the frequency dynamics of spillovers and connectedness between crude oil and MENA stock markets with portfolio implications

This paper examines the frequency of spillovers between crude oil futures and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) stock markets. We use the methodologies proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) and Baruník and Křehlík (2018) and the wavelet coherency approach. The results show time-varying volatility spillovers in the considered markets. The short-term spillovers are higher than their intermediate-term counterparts. The highest jump in spillovers occurs during the COVID-19 outbreak, followed by the global financial crisis and the recent oil price crash. The spillovers are higher for oil-exporting countries than oil-importing countries. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are the main contributors to spillovers in the short and intermediate terms. Brent oil, Egypt, Morocco, and Turkey are the net receivers of spillovers in the short term, and they switch to become net contributors to spillovers in the intermediate term. Turkey and oil-exporting stock markets receive more spillovers than oil-importing stock markets irrespective of the time frequency. Wavelet analysis shows evidence of co-movements between oil futures and stock markets at intermediate and low frequencies. The lead–lag relationships between crude oil and stock markets are mixed and time-varying. Moreover, a mixed portfolio offers diversification benefits. Hedging is more expensive during the pandemic period and particularly in the intermediate term compared to the short term. Hedging effectiveness is highest during the COVID-19 pandemic in the short and intermediate terms for almost all markets.

Oil and precious metals: Volatility transmission, hedging, and safe haven analysis from the Asian crisis to the COVID-19 crisis

This paper examines the volatility transmission between crude oil and four precious metals (i.e., gold, silver, platinum, and palladium) and investigates whether oil can be considered as a hedge or safe-haven asset against four precious metals. Our empirical analysis reveals several important findings. First, we determine that the volatility transmission was time-varying and that influence from the Asian crisis, the bursting of the dot-com bubble, the 2008 global financial crisis, the recent oil-price crash, and COVID-19 alternated between negative and positive values over the entire studied period. We further conclude that Brent oil is a diversifier and a weak safe haven for precious metals;and thus, that a combined portfolio composed of Brent-oil and precious-metals futures yields better hedging effectiveness. These findings indicate that oil futures are a useful investment that reduces downside risks and strengthens diversification benefits in portfolio risk management.

Asymmetric spillover and network connectedness between crude oil, gold, and Chinese sector stock markets

This paper examines the asymmetric return spillovers between crude oil futures, gold futures and ten sector stock markets of China. The results show using the spillover index of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 2014) time-varying asymmetry spillovers among commodity and the ten sectors. Industrials and consumer discretionary sectors are the largest contributor and receiver of spillovers in the system. In addition, basic materials sector is a net contributor of spillovers whereas oil futures, gold futures and the remaining sectors are net receiver of spillovers. Furthermore, the bad return spillovers dominate the good return spillovers. The asymmetry spillovers are influenced by the global financial and European crises (GFC & ESDC), oil price crash and global health crisis (COVID-19 outbreak). Equity investors benefit from adding gold and oil to their individual equity markets. Moreover, the hedging is sensitive to the GFC & ESDC, oil price crash, and COVID-19 outbreak. Finally, the highest hedging effectiveness occurs during COVID-19 spread for the case of oil futures. The result is similar for gold under only good spillovers and it is highest during recovery period under bad spillovers.

Upside-Downside Multifractality and Efficiency of Green Bonds: The Roles of Global Factors and COVID-19

This paper investigates the upward and downward multifractality and time-varying efficiency of green bonds (GBs) using the asymmetric MF-DFA method and Hurst exponents. The results reveal significant asymmetrical multifractality for all GB markets, which increased as the scale increased. Moreover, GB markets are inefficient and vary across market trends and scales. The MSCI Global, Green Building, Industrial, Utility, and Baa GB markets are more inefficient under upward trends whereas the remaining GB markets are more inefficient under downward trends. Citi Macro Risk, both US and Eurozone financial conditions, treasury bills, and COVID-19 are the drivers of GB dynamic inefficiency.

Regime specific spillover across cryptocurrencies and the role of COVID-19.

The aim of this study is to examine the daily return spillover among 18 cryptocurrencies under low and high volatility regimes, while considering three pricing factors and the effect of the COVID-19 outbreak. To do so, we apply a Markov regime-switching (MS) vector autoregressive with exogenous variables (VARX) model to a daily dataset from 25-July-2016 to 1-April-2020. The results indicate various patterns of spillover in high and low volatility regimes, especially during the COVID-19 outbreak. The total spillover index varies with time and abruptly intensifies following the outbreak of COVID-19, especially in the high volatility regime. Notably, the network analysis reveals further evidence of much higher spillovers in the high volatility regime during the COVID-19 outbreak, which is consistent with the notion of contagion during stress periods.